The statements issued by “SDF” or from the International Alliance, about the imminent elimination of ISIS in the last kilometers remaining east of Syria, escalated, and the latest statement in this area was by the acting US Secretary of Defense, Patrick Chanahan, The organization loses its last stronghold in Syria within two weeks.
The statement coincided with what the commander of the SDF operations in the Hajin region, Hafal Rooney, told Agence France-Presse, that only 4 km under the control of ISIS from Baguz to the Iraqi border.
The leader pointed out that his forces are waiting to “complete the necessary preparations” to advance in the last spot where the organization is, and it is likely that the geographical control will end soon, and remain combing and disposal of the remnants and mines and this needs some time.
He added: “Many times we discussed what allows the argument to fight and stay in this organization so far, this indicates that large leaders still exist in the region.”
The leader expects the presence of senior leaders, especially of Iraqi nationality in the last spot of the organization, but that “we have no news about Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.” He said
Has the ISIS ended?
The question that is now being asked strongly is: Is ISIS finished? Or is it finished but has not expired? In other words, does the loss of the organization of its lands mean the elimination of its danger?
The answer to this question requires first to recall that America has stated in 2007 and 2008 that al-Qaeda has died and ended, but the facts later proved to be untrue. Hence, those who wish to declare the “final victory” on ISIS, His calculations, but why?
The facts on the ground say that the organization, if the expectations of the coalition and the SDF is correct, will lose its last urban and demographic strongholds. This means that the speech does not include the vast Syrian desert and the Iraqi Badia,
Which is difficult for any force to control or expel the occupiers of the elements of the organization and the remaining leaders, and it is not necessary to be Baghdadi among them.
The Syrian Badia, which includes the eastern desert of Deir al-Zour and the eastern desert of Homs to the Tel Dakwa area in the desert of Damascus, has witnessed a state of calm for months. The clashes were limited to the eastern desert of Suwayda, Talloul Al Safa Area.
Despite the spread of more than 3,000 fighters organized in the enclaves of Badia, which includes large areas, but the elements did not launch any military operation in 2018, except for some sporadic attacks carried out by small groups, although able to launch large-scale military operations against targets From the Syrian desert.
It is expected that what is happening now in the Badia is the rearrangement of the ranks due to the loss of thousands of foreign and local fighters during the years of the last war, between the death of a wafer and a prisoner.
The Syrian Badia, known as the Shamia desert, is the cradle of the remaining remnants of the “ISIS”. These remnants may be the title of the next phase, after the loss of the remaining urban areas, the Far East of Syria almost completely.
It is noteworthy that the Badia Shamia or what is known as Badia al-Hammad, includes vast areas can not be limited and estimated thousands of kilometers, and the organization can hide thousands of fighters remaining in the ranks, without being monitored by either the aircraft coalition or other, not to mention the geographical nature that make the It is difficult for coalition aircraft to monitor their whereabouts and target them, and therefore the Badia may be the starting point for future operations of the organization, not the aim of controlling new lands, as much as the goal is to drain their enemies and inflict as much damage as possible.
An awakening ideology and dormant cells
The ideas of ISIS and its ideology are still polarized and supported in many parts of the world, although they have been significantly reduced, but they have not been eliminated. This is in itself what the enemies of the organization have overlooked, when the focus was on confronting them militarily, May have a greater and deeper impact.
On the other hand, sleeper cells that are rich in SDF areas and perhaps in other areas of Syria, but to a lesser degree, make those who wish to announce the death of ISIS think carefully. The international coalition that left SDF free to release a large number of elements of the organization, And allow them to live within their areas of control or cross into other Syrian areas, they may be a strong contributor to the return of the organization’s activity in the near or distant future, possibly in other forms and patterns of fighting and attacks, and in non-conventional battles.
And those who are within the communities in the cities and governorates and villages of Syria, several are not more than time bombs, which can either explode or are currently preparing to explode.
Keeping the reasons will return the results
Everyone knows that “ISIS” did not appear so without reasons on the ground allowed Bnshoh and then rise strongly, and to the establishment of “state”, and perhaps the most important of these reasons is the grievances and killings and displacement practiced by the regime of Assad and his ally Iran, and last did what I did in Iraq, and in a manner similar to what Assad did to the Syrians and perhaps more.
The grievances against the citizens of the region are still ongoing, and even other grievances have been suppressed and cases of repression and abuse of civilians may constitute a point of exploitation for the organization in the future to serve its objectives as it did years ago. And perhaps other names, but the risk of one .. The “ISIS” may actually disappear within weeks, but the risk will remain.