“Al-Shamia” tops the next scene .. Where is “ISIS” now and what are the options of the remaining soldiers?

by Euphratespost

“ISIS” has been the focus of media attention both at the local level and at the Arab and international levels, after several parties inside and outside Syria declared victory over the organization and competed among themselves over the eligibility of those who have the greatest credit for eliminating it.

The regime of Assad, Iran, Hezbollah, America, Russia, France all announced victory over the organization, the elimination of its project and the end of its succession. But reality does not agree with what is declared the end of the “Caliphate”

 Which is still in place in many areas in the far east of Syria, but has not been highlighted enough, after you have received other issues in the Syrian event on the spotlight, without enough attention to the current reality, which is overlooked by many.

what’s left?..

ISIS still maintains several towns and villages in the countryside of Bu Kamal, east of Deir Ezzor. It is located between the areas ranging from a hajeen to a Baguoz,  Shafa, al-Sousse and Abu Khater, all located on the western side of the Euphrates River.

On the other side (east of the river – Shamia), the organization is under the control of the village of Mezzila and its spring, and the area near the oil field, in addition to many places in the Wadi Al-Waier area in the Badia Shami.

The question that arises is: Why has ISIS been barricaded in these areas (east of Deir Ezzor) without the other areas of its former “succession”

The answer to this question indicates that the areas of rural Albukmal are rich in oil, where there is agriculture and water, and it includes a large proportion of the members of the organization and their families, not to mention the geographical nature (the presence of hills), and characterized by the existence of many orchards, especially near the Euphrates River, Such as AL-SHAFFA-AL-SOUSSA-ALSAFAFINA, which are agricultural areas, with many trees as well.

All the above mentioned features were not important because the area is borderline and close to the southern Hasaka countryside, which contains some areas and Wild pockets in desert of the organization. In addition, it is open to the areas of the Badia (Shameya), which is believed to be the last resort for its elements, Badia area between Rabia on the Iraqi border to the vicinity of Altnf estimated at 600 kilometers).

What about the remaining soldiers? According to sources close to the organization, the number of remaining soldiers is estimated at about 4,000 elements, including 800 foreigners (Moroccans, Saudis, Jordanians, Uzbeks, Tajiks …) and the rest of the local fighters.

Military approach:

After its “ISIS” receded considerably, ISIS adopted a new military policy that was different from what it had been in the past. It now focuses on attacks on anything moving in the desert,

As for the offensive situation on the centers and major points, it has become few or rare compared to the previous status, but it takes bad weather (dust storms), an opportunity to launch attacks against the forces of the regime and the Russians and the militias backed by Iran, and in recent weeks, The most recent of which was the killing of Russian officers (in the area of ​​the Myadeen east of Deir Ezzor)

 He was also able to arrest members of a group of the regime’s militias in Fida Um Muwayna in Badia al-Bu Kamal, amid other reports indicating that he managed to capture an Iranian fighter near AL-KAM east of Deir al-Zour.

Of the methods of the new military approach to the “ISIS”, avoid approaching the city of Deir Az-Zor under the Assad regime, because of its inability to control the city’s visibility so far, and avoids control of any new point and positioning, so as not to prey easy to the air force, But on the other hand, he occasionally attacks the regime and its militias.

ISIS has a large amount of money and gold in the countryside of Albukmal, as a result of the collection from al- Mosul,Al-Raqqa

And the elements of the security apparatus management and distribution of salaries to the fighters, but in the Badia depends on the ambushes, and the blocking of roads on trucks, and the mechanisms in Badia Albokmal loaded with goods and materials heading to the city of Albuakmal

ISIS currently controls oil wells in Badia al-Jazira in the Malha area and sells oil to civilians. Its cells buy and support trucks on the pretext of trade.

Civilians .. displaced

ISIS still retains the administrative titles it has been operating since 2014, namely the Euphrates State (Rural Bu Kamal), the Wilayat al-Khair (Badia al-Mayadin), the Euphrates State (Badia al-Bu Kamal).

Within these areas are thousands of civilians, most of whom are displaced from al-Raqqa and Bu Kamal, as well as a large number of displaced Iraqis coming from Mosul and al-Qa’im. Most of the remaining civilians  They work in the ISIS areas in the sale of fuel, repairs, furnaces, office counters, shops and other professions, but to a much lesser degree than the previous one because of the economic downturn and the siege of their areas from time to time.

Al-Shafa and al-Sousse are the largest gathering of civilians. Hundreds of them have been killed and hundreds injured in recent months by air raids carried out by the International Coalition.

What then?

SDF “in cooperation with the International Coalition for weeks, launched a military operation aimed at controlling the last remaining areas of” ISIS “, but it seems that the military pressure is not large, and may be the goal behind it:

Take advantage of the attacks of the organization against the regime and its militias in Albukmal and its countryside and in the desert areas, and thus the depletion of the parties, as well as pressure on the elements of the organization through the method of siege and military pressure at the same time, prompting its elements to negotiations and surrender.

Information suggests that ISIS has recently tried to find a way to transport its fighters and fighters from the countryside of Boukamal or Daraa, but it seems to be difficult to achieve.

Of the questions raised in this area: If the organization lost the villages and towns remaining under its control, what is the destination of its next elements ?.

ISIS will not be able to get out of its areas in rural Bu Kamal unless it manages to control the al-Ghubra and Ash’ir  and open a road linking its elements in the Badia and its elements in Al-Bukamal countryside (Al-Shafaa and Hajin).

The negotiations are still pending in the coming agreements. Several negotiations have taken place between the coalition and the organization to transfer the latter elements to areas such as rural Idlib, rural Hama and rural Daraa, but no understandings have been reached because countries such as Turkey and Russia have rejected such agreements.

Hence, it is believed that  badia of al-Shamia is the last and most important resort for ISIS, in order to exploit its advantages, especially the vast area and its connection to the Anbar badia, and the knowledge of its elements, especially the Iraqis and the Syrians, in detail.  “succession”, not to mention the weak impact of air strikes in such areas.

One of the advantages of the Badia Shamia is that it is possible to travel to and reach the areas of Badia El Sokhna, Sweida and Homs, while the island’s desert on the other side of the river (north) is confined within a narrow geographic framework.

Finally .. Reality today:

According to the correspondent of the “Euphrates Post” in the eastern countryside of Deir Al-Zour on Wednesday, more goods and foodstuffs entered AL-shafaa during the past two days after ending the siege of “SDF” for the region, which led to the recovery of markets and shops, And fuel.

Our correspondent pointed out that the commercial activity in Al-Shafaa and Al-Sousse is the largest and largest among the remaining villages in the hands of the organization, due to the escape of most civilians from the front lines towards it, noting at the same time that the fighting has subsided relatively in the past two days, SDF “in its battles against” ISIS “in Deshisha and Tel-Haier south of Hasaka.

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